Housing market transformation in 2024
The year 2024 was a time of major transformation for the real estate market. The beginning of the year brought hopes of a new preferential mortgage programme, but the end of this programme had a negative impact on market dynamics. The decline in the number of transactions, as well as the increasing number of available flats, made the market for flats for sale more diverse and sales dropped significantly.
At the end of the year, developers offered a record number of flats, reaching 57,000 units, an increase of 54% compared to 2023. However, sales fell by 26% compared to the previous year, indicating a decline in demand. There were, however, differences in how housing prices changed in different cities.
Decline in the number of transactions, but stability in prices
Despite lower demand, housing prices in Poland continued to rise. In 2024, the average price increase on the primary market was 8%, which was a slowdown compared to previous years. Flat prices grew most dynamically in cities such as Łódź and Poznań, where increases were as high as 11-16%.
Changes in the number of dwellings for sale in 2024
| Period | Number of flats for sale | Change from previous year (%) |
| January-March | 15 300 | +114% |
| Mid-year | 48 200 | - |
| December | 57 000 | +54% |
Although the number of flats for sale was increasing, sales had already fallen in the second quarter of the year. Particularly in May 2024, sales were at a record low, approaching the results of 2022.
How have developers responded to the changes in 2024?
Developers in 2024 have had to adjust their strategies despite the difficult market situation. In the first quarter of the year, the number of new flats for sale was around 15,300, an increase of 114% compared to the previous year. The higher number of available flats was intended to increase sales, but after the end of the soft loan programme, the situation started to become more complicated.
Despite the increasing supply, sales of flats for sale fell, which shows that the market is changing not only under the influence of the availability of flats, but also in the context of changing buyer preferences and lending levels.
Who is buying new flats?
Despite the decline in transactions, the market for flats for sale has not disappeared. The high popularity of high-end flats has been noted in 2024. In the third quarter of 2024, it was premium properties that were the most popular. Customers with sufficient creditworthiness or cash were seeing these investments as a stable way to protect capital.
The data shows that more than 70 per cent of those buying flats in 2024 planned to use them for personal use, and interest in new flats for sale in the luxury segment increased. In particular, flats with additional amenities such as a swimming pool, gym or spacious terraces were sought after. These features were seen as assets in terms of maintaining the value of the investment.
Price growth in the secondary market
While the rate of price growth has slowed in the primary market, the secondary market has experienced more dynamic changes. The average price of second-hand flats in 2024 increased by 13%. In some cities, such as Katowice and Wrocław, increases amounted to 7-12%. Prices on the secondary market grew in a less controlled manner, due to limited supply and delayed reactions by sellers to changes in the market environment.
Forecasts for 2025
In 2025, the real estate market in Poland is likely to enter a stage of stabilisation. Due to changes in spatial planning and the limited availability of land for investment, the situation in the residential market is expected to change. Developers have already prepared construction projects, but the reduction of available land, especially in large cities, will affect the supply of new flats.
On the other hand, there are forecasts for housing prices to stabilise in 2025. Although prices in the first half of the year may remain at a similar level to 2024, increases of a few per cent are possible in the second half of the year. The tendency to look for flats with a higher standard will continue to prevail, which will be a major theme in the market. For more on forecasts and trends in 2025, see the article Residential property market in 2025: Stabilisation and key forecasts.
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Summary
The year 2024 was a time of many challenges for the housing market in Poland. Changes in lending policies, the end of government programs and a reduction in the number of transactions were the most important factors that affected the market for apartments for sale. Although the number of new apartments for sale grew, demand for them declined in the second half of the year. The real estate market remains dynamic, and for those who plan to buy new apartments for sale in 2025, this could be a time for apt investments. The anticipated stabilization of prices and less availability of apartments in major cities will have a significant impact on the future of the real estate market.
- Source:
Najważniejsze trendy na rynku mieszkaniowym w Polsce w 2024 roku
